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The Stock Market Thread

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The Stock Market Thread
Old October 8th, 2008, 06:56 AM   #1
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The Stock Market Thread

This thread will list ruminations from No Man regarding the stock market. It will not include specific stock recommendations for the purpose of buying and selling.

The internet allows each of us access to all the information any financial adviser has access to. Why pay some asshole who cares mostly about his fees to manage your money when usually if you are smart enough to make it, you are smart enough to manage it.

The stock market is full of crooks (insiders) who make most of the real easy money. Unfortunately, it is also the primary vehicle for most people to build investment cash. The insiders leave footprints and if you can learn to spot them, you can follow their lead and ride on their boat.

Mutual funds have become a sucker's play. 80% of mutual funds do not beat the performance of the S&P 500 index and they charge gross fees for this lousy performance. This is relatively the same performance as a Gibbons monkey with a dart board. Mutual funds cannot be traded like stocks as buy and sell orders are processed only after the close of trading each day.

Use ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds) to purchase a bundle of stocks in the sectors you feel will perform. Their cost is very low and they trade like stocks.

You don't lose money until you sell, true. You ALSO don't make money until you sell. Everyone is a market timer, the only variance is the intervals by which they time.

The worst advice your will ever get is to buy and hold with indifference because you are young and everything corrects over time. Horse shit. Tell that to people who bought the NASDAQ at 5000. People don't live that long.

Dollar cost averaging is not a investment strategy, it is a tool to use within an overall strategy. What you buy will determine your portfolio success much more than how you buy it.

To avoid eye strain, that's it for the first post.
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Old October 8th, 2008, 07:03 AM   #2
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good info, keep it coming. im not gonna follow any of it but i like to hear stuff like this.
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Old October 8th, 2008, 07:10 AM   #3
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There are many free newsletters out there filled with information from experts who have been successful in the market for many years. Evaluate them on your own and determine the good one's form the bad one's. Here's one that I have found to be very good.

Register and Join our Community - InvestorsInsight Publishing


This guy is not a hard sell trying to get you to use his fee services and he frequently includes articles from other esteemed market guru's.
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Old October 8th, 2008, 07:18 AM   #4
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If your portfolio goes down 50% in a bear market, it has to go up 100% to get back to even. Preservation of capital is critical in bear markets.

Cheap stocks are generally cheap for a reason. Be very careful with stocks that are under $5 per share and hyper careful with those under $1.

Watch the "float" on these stocks. If there are not many shares traded on a daily basis you may not be able to sell when you want to.

Bull markets NEVER have 300 point daily rallies, EVER. Those type daily upsides are bear market traps. True bull markets are orderly.
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Old October 8th, 2008, 07:20 AM   #5
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This is going to be controversial so it is the only topic in this post.

DEVILDOG in not full of shit regarding his market observations. He does play the asshole on the internet but don't let that fool you.

Jim Cramer on the other hand is mostly full of shit.
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Old October 8th, 2008, 07:29 AM   #6
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You can make money as easily when the market is going down as when it is going up. TWM was up over 12% yesterday.

If you ever get the chance to roll your 401k into an standard IRA do it. Within the IRA you can buy almost any trading vehicle and your gains are tax deferred until you make a withdrawal.
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Old October 8th, 2008, 07:36 AM   #7
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If you are in the market, you are a speculator. You buy stocks because you are betting that they will either go up or down.
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Old October 8th, 2008, 08:06 AM   #8
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Very good advice. I'm going to roll my money into and IRA. Should I find an alternative plan for my son's college plan. They are currently enrolled in the latest version of the Texas College Savings plan (Oppenheimer Funds). Last couple of statements have shown a loss.
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Old October 8th, 2008, 08:51 AM   #9
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Very good advice. I'm going to roll my money into and IRA. Should I find an alternative plan for my son's college plan. They are currently enrolled in the latest version of the Texas College Savings plan (Oppenheimer Funds). Last couple of statements have shown a loss.
I don't know anything about the Texas college savings plan. I do know that 401k's have very limited selections for investments and those are chosen by some dumb fuck in human resources.
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Old October 8th, 2008, 09:00 AM   #10
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good info, keep it coming. im not gonna follow any of it but i like to hear stuff like this.
The only point of this thread is to get people to understand that if they choose, they can likely do better managing their own money. All the tools are out there. I hate seeing what is happening to so many just watching their investments get trashed.

You have to set stop limits on what you are willing to lose and that should be determined by your age and portfolio size.

The S&P 500 is down 35% since I went to mostly cash. I am up 3% total and that is only playing with 15% of my dough. 90% of my upside this year was shorting the S&P 500 and Russell 2000. I have lost money on most of my upside attempts.
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Old October 8th, 2008, 09:14 AM   #11
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good advice as well as some calming words.

Thanks, I needed that.
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Old October 8th, 2008, 09:17 AM   #12
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good advice as well as some calming words.

Thanks, I needed that.
Well shit, I thought I was sounding an alarm. To arms to arms, Obama is coming!
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Old October 8th, 2008, 09:22 AM   #13
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I've lost A LOT of cash in the past couple of weeks. I guess I'm just going have to ride it out now. True you don't loose your money until you sell it off so I'm just showing a lot of lose on paper now!!
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Old October 8th, 2008, 09:22 AM   #14
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Keep it comming O wise one.
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Old October 8th, 2008, 09:24 AM   #15
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What would you do.....10,000 shares of EQT and OKE sell or hold?
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Old October 8th, 2008, 09:26 AM   #16
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I've lost A LOT of cash in the past couple of weeks. I guess I'm just going have to ride it out now. True you don't loose your money until you sell it off so I'm just showing a lot of lose on paper now!!
That's a valid position to take. Remember though, some positions never come back, they just drizzle away. Evaluate each based on this possibility.
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Old October 8th, 2008, 09:28 AM   #17
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That's a valid position to take. Remember though, some positions never come back, they just drizzle away. Evaluate each based on this possibility.

So you saying dump all?
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Old October 8th, 2008, 09:30 AM   #18
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What would you do.....10,000 shares of EQT and OKE sell or hold?
Like I said Walt, I'm not making specific stock recommendations, only sharing what I have learned and where you can learn the same.

I do think the overall market is heading lower for at least the next six months. We might see a mass sell off today followed by a sharp upside reversal. The government is making too many unannounced moves to know what the rules are these days.
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Old October 8th, 2008, 09:33 AM   #19
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So you saying dump all?
NO, I'm saying evaluate each and decide what your tolerance is. I held some tech stocks for two years at the advice of my then adviser and watched them decline 80%. I personally will never do that shit again.

NEVER TAKE STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS FROM ANYONE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND MAKE YOUR OWN INFORMED DECISIONS.
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