I think we are at the verge of another generational shift in values. It will be painful but as people, as citizens, as a country we are going to have to learn to live with less and value non materialistic things more. We'll look back on the conspicuous consumption of the 80's, 90's and early millenium and wonder what a bunch of dopes we were.
First we need to stem our consumption of fuel. Nothing is going to be stable or good as long as we keep driving up the value of oil. I hate to say it but it will probably take $6 a gallon gas to get to the point where Americans look at all SUV's, non commercial large pickups driven as daily drivers, large 8 cylinder cars (not just their own) as stupid things are are ultimately harming everyone. THis will take a few years.
The whole 4 person family living in a 5000 square foot home thing will also have to change. It's wasteful of fuel, it's wasteful of resources, it's wasteful of space. The fact that in the 1950's and 1960's a family of 4 easily grew up in a home that was 1700 square feet tells you why things were different then. More people using up more resources drives up the cost of everything. Over the years we have compensated by putting the wife to work but now we are just barely paying for all these big things. Our parents were easily making due with only one person earning an income. We've got to come to realize that we have made ourselves slaves to vanity and now it is something that cannot be afforded.
We are also going to have to realize that we cannot be the top banana in spending on medicine and military forever. Things like going to Iraq are things that just cannot be afforded by countries that have fallen into hard times. As Americans we have to change our thinking from "America we are badder than everyone else" to "America, we have problems like everyone else".
I could go on and on but basically people are going to be slow to change so I see this thing dragging on for at least 5 to 6 more years. I hate to say it but I think that once everyone gets their cruddy credit, bankruptcy erased which is usually about 7 years part of the resurgence will be those people spending again. But hopefully by then a new attitude will have the borrowers of the country borrowing more sensibly and if not then the loaners loaning more sensibly. It all won't work though if the goal is to have 2 SUV's and a sportscar, a 5000 ft square foot home, and CEO's that take 9 figure compensation for screwing things up. Our basic idea of what we NEED will have to change a bit.
Sorry to sound all Ted Kaczynski like but I've seen this coming for a while. Everyone says that empires all crumble after 2 or 3 hundred years and everyone wants to blame liberals, Mexicans, Arabs, the ACLU or what not but the reality is that as citizens our own stewardship of our economy has been frightfully bad.
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Oil prices are the result, not the cause of the problem. No matter what the fed does it really isn’t going to help much. Right now they are lowering the rate so the banks can make more $ to offset the losses they realized from the sub prime mess. I think the markets will continue to drop until mid to late summer. Once the banks start generating profits again, consumer confidence will rise, and money will start flowing. The commodities markets (i.e. oil, gold, nat gas) are going thru a period of correction and balance. Lots of short positions and speculation driving the short term price up, but it is reaching the break point (look what nat gas did yesterday) where the market is saturated and there are no viable short positions. Everything I read shows oil will start falling again as consumers cant afford $4/gal gas. The producers will curtail production to maximize profits (thanks Biggs) but that will only last about 3-4 months as they can only short inventories for so long.
I think we are at the verge of another generational shift in values. It will be painful but as people, as citizens, as a country we are going to have to learn to live with less and value non materialistic things more. We'll look back on the conspicuous consumption of the 80's, 90's and early millenium and wonder what a bunch of dopes we were.
First we need to stem our consumption of fuel. Nothing is going to be stable or good as long as we keep driving up the value of oil. I hate to say it but it will probably take $6 a gallon gas to get to the point where Americans look at all SUV's, non commercial large pickups driven as daily drivers, large 8 cylinder cars (not just their own) as stupid things are are ultimately harming everyone. THis will take a few years.
The whole 4 person family living in a 5000 square foot home thing will also have to change. It's wasteful of fuel, it's wasteful of resources, it's wasteful of space. The fact that in the 1950's and 1960's a family of 4 easily grew up in a home that was 1700 square feet tells you why things were different then. More people using up more resources drives up the cost of everything. Over the years we have compensated by putting the wife to work but now we are just barely paying for all these big things. Our parents were easily making due with only one person earning an income. We've got to come to realize that we have made ourselves slaves to vanity and now it is something that cannot be afforded.
We are also going to have to realize that we cannot be the top banana in spending on medicine and military forever. Things like going to Iraq are things that just cannot be afforded by countries that have fallen into hard times. As Americans we have to change our thinking from "America we are badder than everyone else" to "America, we have problems like everyone else".
I could go on and on but basically people are going to be slow to change so I see this thing dragging on for at least 5 to 6 more years. I hate to say it but I think that once everyone gets their cruddy credit, bankruptcy erased which is usually about 7 years part of the resurgence will be those people spending again. But hopefully by then a new attitude will have the borrowers of the country borrowing more sensibly and if not then the loaners loaning more sensibly. It all won't work though if the goal is to have 2 SUV's and a sportscar, a 5000 ft square foot home, and CEO's that take 9 figure compensation for screwing things up. Our basic idea of what we NEED will have to change a bit.
Sorry to sound all Ted Kaczynski like but I've seen this coming for a while. Everyone says that empires all crumble after 2 or 3 hundred years and everyone wants to blame liberals, Mexicans, Arabs, the ACLU or what not but the reality is that as citizens our own stewardship of our economy has been frightfully bad.
.......interesting how the views of those in California differ from Texas..........
I don't see it as a regional view, but one that can apply to everyone regardless of their individual economic status. We as Americans have completely rewritten our basic standard of 'needs' and regardless of our ability to pay for it or not, have created an economy full of excess. Just my .02.
there are numerous range rovers, high level benzs,escalades etc. at my apartment complex...people spending every penny they have trying to appear rich...makes me sick most of the very wealthy I know drive significantly lesser cars and are much less flashy
I would say in houston, 60 + percent of the bad ass cars belong to people who can't really afford them
and when it comes time to choose between their mortgage or their car note, many choose the car
our society is too materialistic
shows like cribs and fabulous life of do nothing but promote the problem
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I agree with Vanishing Point, BgCk13 and Wicked Wahine - society has expectations that are not sustainable from normal earning sources. We can lower our expectations or raise our earning capacity, no prizes for guessing which option will be forced if the preferred one fails.
Good times are great, but hard times are also a time of great opportunity, so while I realize that the media have accurately predicted 48 of the last 2 depressions I have decided not to participate in the next one.
There has never been a time so good that a whole bunch of people have not managed to completely cock it up and loose everything. Nor has there been a time so bad that a few people did not do extra-ordinarily well. Zig Ziglar
The survivors will create new ways to rise above their circumstances.
